textile and apparel consumer market recovery has not been strong in recent days, the national textile industry Adds Xinchou hearts. US debt crisis triggered by the national credit rating drop not only make the US stock market suffered heavy losses, the global commodity prices also fluctuate significantly. In terms of the textile and garment industry, which will lead to consumer demand or shrinking, weak dollar and other issues become the focus of the industry.
credit downgrade
8 5 March, the international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's announced that the US sovereign credit rating from AAA down a file to AA +, this is the first time in American history was "demoted." This a ripple , causing market volatility. Economists pointed out that even in the textile and clothing and other consumer goods in the future is hard rigid spared. In order to reduce the budget deficit, the US government will increase taxes, consumers' disposable income will be reduced, including consumer goods, including clothing or will be affected.
recall in 2008, once the global financial crisis in textile and apparel consumer market hit rock bottom. Increase in unemployment, income tight so that consumers do not want too much spending on apparel products. Many textile manufacturers are due to sluggish sales suffered huge losses. And the adverse effects of the debt crisis on unemployment has been revealed. US Department of Labor on August 3, said June US unemployment rate rose to 9.2%. Analysts believe that even if the US Government did not take action on tax revenue , rising unemployment will lead consumers to cut spending, the United States will face a shrinking domestic consumer market. On the other hand, in order to solve the unemployment problem, the United States is likely in the second half in order to reduce imports and expand exports as the main mode of economic growth.
more far-reaching implication is that if the United States implemented export strategy to suppress imported products, will inevitably lead to further rise of trade protectionism, the United States, while allowing international trade frictions. "Increasing imports would mean reducing their opportunities in the economy slowing down, which is the US government would like to see, so in order to suppress national import, international trade friction will become more frequent. "An economist this prophecy.
trading partner diffuse tension
face of the US debt crisis may lead to negative effects, has close contacts with its major textile and clothing exporting countries have shown concern. Related practitioners pointed out that in the next period of time, the US market is likely to reduce imports because of the downturn in consumption, the expected depreciation of the dollar will further squeeze profit margins of textile and apparel exports.
Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) president Deora said: "The US credit rating from AAA down to AA + grade level will impact the Indian economy in many aspects of Indian exporters, this is definitely not a good news." ; Deora said that the US economic downturn, the euro zone's debt crisis will lead to reduced demand for US and European markets, affecting India's exports orders, especially clothing, handicrafts and other products. "This year, three, four quarters, the US debt crisis on the negative impact of these exports might appear. "Deora said worried.
In addition to a drop in demand, the Deora also on the Indian rupee against the US dollar exchange rate movements the worries. "Indian rupee appreciation is expected, will weaken the competitive advantage of Indian manufacturers. Moreover, lower prices of imported goods will likely bring pressure on the manufacturing sector in India. "Deora said.
highly sensitive to fluctuations in the US market countries than in India. Thailand, Thailand and China Farmers Research Center judgment, once the United States and the euro zone economy into a second recession, it will directly affect the Thai market is highly dependent on the United States and the euro area's industries. Which, by the influence of the largest industries (dependent on the United States and the euro area exceeds 40%) including textiles, tableware, and other products. Since these products in Thailand exports play an important role, and its decline in orders will weigh 2012 Thai export growth slowed sharply, even lower than the research center the projected 12.0% to 17.0% increase. If the situation is severe, it may result in increase in exports occurred in Thailand such as last fall during the global economic crisis and turned negative.
Pakistani analysts expected, the US debt crisis temporarily Pakistan's textile exports will have much impact, but the costs will enable the country difficult for manufacturers in the depressed US market have gained a competitive advantage. Affected by fluctuations in cotton prices and energy crisis and other factors such as distress, Pakistan's textile industry this year operational burden. Compared with the previous year, Pakistan's textile manufacturing costs increased by more than $ 1 billion. The industry generally worried about Pakistan's garment exports this year will continue to decline.
significant fluctuations in the consumer market yet
Although the US textile and apparel manufacturers conceal the exporting country concerned, but for the present situation, the performance of the US consumer market is still stable. The latest statistics show that in July US retail sales increased by 0.5%. Compared with June, but also improved 0.2 percentage points. Industrial Bank of New York, Rudy Narvas, "said US retail sales accounted for the proportion of US economic activity up to 2/3 of all economic statistics though complex, but you can see, the retail trade since March this year, has always been a great performance, even in just the past seven months, to promote US economic growth in consumer gear has not stopped. "
the other hand, some of China's export enterprises also said that orders from the US market has not yet been strongly affected. Corporate current orders are basically determined early in orders also lined up in October, but the trend of the US market, but dare not say optimistic. "Maybe like the 2008 financial crisis, at the beginning did not feel much impact, but later orders have been declining, continued until the second half of 2009 have eased. It seems that next year's orders require early plans . "Certain textile export enterprises responsible person said.
economic turmoil reflected in the consumer market often requires a longer period, according to economists estimated that the US debt crisis, the negative impact of this is likely to appear in the next year.
consulting firm Capital Economics economist Paul? Dales forecasts, stock prices will lead to reduced consumer spending next year the American people about $ 140 billion (equivalent to a 1.3% decrease), and the annual growth rate of the economy slowed half percentage points. Some analysts have pointed out that the stock market turbulence to the richest people maximum impact. "80% of the stock is 10% of the community holds the richest people, and the community that the richest 20% of people spending accounted for 40% of national consumption expenditure ", the International Centre Association chief economist Mike? Niemi Asia said.
is worth noting that in the future, the US luxury retail or will be unprecedented challenges. All along, the growth of the luxury goods industry is the most solid foundation for the richest people in society, and now, luxury retailer Saks Fifth Avenue, Tiffany and find business is getting deserted. Las Vegas tourists are vacationing Kelly? Jock said: "This time we really tight budget, this is not the case with the previous, before we play it never scruple to spend much money." ;
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